Speculation about an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities has reached fever pitch in recent weeks, driven by comments from Israeli officials and a slew of articles in the international media.

Israel, like much of the international community, accuses Tehran of using its nuclear programme to mask a weapons drive, a charge denied by Iran.

And the Jewish state, the sole, if undeclared, nuclear power in the region, has made clear it sees a nuclear-armed Iran as a threat that it will prevent at all costs.

But experts say Israel's rhetoric about a military strike could be seen as a strategy to obviate the need for an attack by piling on the pressure on Iran and the international community.

Political science professor Yehezkel Dror's book "Israeli Statecraft" analyses various ways Israel could confront Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions and says that bellicose rumblings from the Jewish state serve a range of purposes.

"Israel certainly wants other countries to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons, and is surely using the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran as one of the means to convince them to do so," he told AFP.

By brandishing the threat of military action, Israel targets policy-makers both in Tehran and the West, Dror says, using "a very accepted means of creating deterrence, as well as a motivating force."

Israel's sabre-rattling appears to have stepped up, with Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon warning that no Iranian facility, however reinforced, is immune to Israeli attack.

But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also said to have asked officials to stop "blabbing" about such an attack, warning it could create the impression an attack was imminent or be seen as undermining tough new European sanctions against Tehran.

For Israeli military and intelligence writer Ronen Bergman, the attack rhetoric is a good way for the Jewish state to preemptively justify an eventual military operation.

"Israel is trying to tell the world: 'We told you that if you wouldn't act, we would,'" he said.

"Part of the international legitimacy for the decision-makers is to say: 'We raised the alert, we did everything throughout the years to get the world to impose sanctions to prevent an attack.'"

Bergman caused a splash last month with a New York Times magazine cover article entitled "Will Israel Attack Iran?," which concluded, based on discussions with senior Israeli officials, that an attack this year is likely.

But he acknowledges that even among his most informed sources, there is still uncertainty. "There has not been a decision to attack," he says.

Avner Cohen, an Israeli-American professor with the Non-Proliferation Centre at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, also believes Israel is keeping its options open for tackling Iran's nuclear programme.

Israeli talk of an attack "may be an 80 percent bluff in the current context, in the sense that Israel has not made a decision," he said.

But he notes that "Israel under Netanyahu and (Defence Minister Ehud) Barak is committed to act, if nothing else would stop Iran, if Iran continues and develops nuclear weapons."

"Israel would likely act alone, so in that aspect it's not a bluff," he adds.

Cohen acknowledged that there is still uncertainty about whether Iran is in fact seeking nuclear weapons, and that any preemptive attack could galvanise their resolve to obtain them.

"The Iranian decision very much depends on how the world would respond," he said.

"They don't need actual weapons, they would like to be perceived as very close to the weapon, to the point that it doesn't really matter whether they actually have the weapon or something short of it," said Cohen.

"Only if Iran would be attacked would they leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty and declare their right to have nuclear weapons in the name of self defence."

Such uncertainty contributes to Israel's mixed messages, Dror said.

"It is not reasonable, to my mind, that the ambiguous threat to attack alone might be a 'bluff' solely meant to galvanise others into action," he said.

"It is much more reasonable to assume that Israel is keeping its options open, which is the right thing to do."

"Few people know all the details," he added. "All the rest is speculation."

The British government would face "significantly greater challenges" if it launched a second Libya-style mission, the Commons Defence Committee said.

Britain was at the forefront of international efforts to support Libya's rebels against Moamer Kadhafi's regime, launching UN-mandated military action with France and the United States in March before NATO took over.

The country's final bill for the operation, codenamed Ellamy, was at £212 million ($337 million, 254 million euros) far higher than the tens of millions the government estimated at the start of the campaign.

And the operation was launched before key cuts in the government's Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) -- which slashes defence spending by eight percent over four years -- had come into force, the committee said.

"We believe the government will face significantly greater challenges should an operation of similar size be necessary in the future and it will need to be prepared for some difficult decisions on prioritisation," the committee said.

"We consider that Operation Ellamy raises important questions as to the extent of the United Kingdom's national contingent capability."

The Libyan conflict forced Britain's Royal Air Force to delay the decommissioning of its ageing Nimrod R1 spy planes while the Royal Navy had to divert resources from counter-drugs operations, the MPs said.

But they added that Britain had been right to take military action against the Kadhafi regime.

After the SDSR was carried out in 2010, the British government said it would cut 17,000 jobs from the army, navy and Royal Air Force over four years.

The review has also seen Britain, which still has more than 9,000 troops in Afghanistan, give up its flagship aircraft carrier.

In a densely-worded joint statement, the two sides said they were talking about "delinking" the redeployment of 8,000 Marines from a 2006 agreement to close the base in the crowded urban area of Futenma.

It has been widely reported in Japan that Washington has now set its sights on shifting 4,700 Marines to Guam without waiting for Japan to stop its foot-dragging over the accord, which would see a new facility built in a sparsely populated coastal area.

The original agreement offered the carrot of a Marine drawdown in exchange for Okinawans allowing the construction of an airstrip at Henoko.

But local opposition to the plan has been fierce, with feelings running high on the tropical island chain that because it is home to around half of the 50,000 US troops in Japan, it already shoulders a big enough burden.

The two sides said Wednesday that the move to Henoko remained the "only viable way forward" but that it may no longer be contingent on Marines leaving.

The statement, issued in Washington and Tokyo, said the US was looking to "achieve a more geographically distributed, operationally resilient and politically sustainable force structure in" Asia, and the relocation of Marines to Guam was an essential part of that.

"Our two governments have started official discussions to adjust our current posture plans... in particular delinking both the movement of Marines to Guam and resulting land returns... from progress on the Futenma Replacement Facility."

Tokyo and Washington have squabbled since 2009 over the fate of the base, where locals have long complained of aircraft noise, the risk of accidents, and crime associated with a large contingent of young servicemen.

The dispute helped to bring down former prime minister Yukio Hatoyama who mused openly about moving the base off the island then backtracked to appease Washington, which maintains that a shifting security environment in east Asia means a Marine presence on Okinawa has crucial strategic value.

Hatoyama's successor, Naoto Kan, pledged to relocate Futenma, as originally agreed, but was brought down by domestic issues before he could fulfil his promise.

Current Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda told parliament on Wednesday he had no intention of abandoning the plan to close Futenma.

"We definitely have to avoid fixing the site of the Futenma air base at the current place. There's no change in our plans to relocate the base to Henoko," he said.

The original proposal to shift Futenma dates back to the 1990s when the US military was looking to assuage local anger following a series of incidents including the gang rape of a schoolgirl.

But it has become mired in a mix of local and national politics and has reached deadlock in recent years.

Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba said Wednesday's agreement to begin talks on reducing US troop numbers would at least provide a way forward.

"The government needs to carefully explain to the people of Okinawa about the need to remove the risk around the Futenma airbase as quickly as possible," he said.

"Do we choose to stay like this, where nothing moves on? It is better to choose an option that would lessen the burden on Okinawa."

The assurances came as South Korea's President Lee Myung-Bak held talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday with Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi and the head of Saudi state oil giant Aramco, Khalid al-Faleh.

They discussed "means of bilateral cooperation between both countries," Saudi state news agency SPA said without giving further details.

But South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted a senior official as saying Naimi had "promised to help ensure a stable supply of crude to South Korea."

"Regarding oil supply-demand, we will meet any request and additional demand from South Korea," senior South Korean presidential press secretary Choe Geum-nak quoted Naimi as saying.

"Lee asked for Saudi's support for a stable supply of crude oil to South Korea in case of a contingency, stressing that a rise in oil prices at a time of global economic difficulty could deal a blow to the world economy," Yonhap quoted the official as saying.

Washington wants close ally Seoul to reduce purchases of Iranian crude in line with a US-led drive to sanction Tehran for its suspected nuclear weapons programme.

Naimi said last month that Saudi Arabia was ready to make up for any shortfall in Iran's oil exports under new Western sanctions, an announcement that prompted Tehran to urge Riyadh to "reflect" on its vow.

South Korea, the world's fifth largest oil importer, accounts for around 10 percent of Iran's oil exports but has yet to cut the imports of Iranian oil due to fears of economic damage.

In 2011, top world oil exporter Saudi Arabia exported 270 million barrels of oil to South Korea, accounting for 31.4 percent of Seoul's entire oil imports.

Lee is expected to meet King Abdullah and Saudi Arabia's defence minister on Wednesday for talks "about boosting cooperation in energy, construction, defence and health care areas," South Korea's presidential office said.

He will also visit the kingdom's gas-rich neighbour Qatar on Thursday and make a stop in the United Arab Emirates on his way home.

"I am determined to work harder than any other heads of state to overcome the (global financial) crisis this year, including visiting the three Middle Eastern nations," Lee said during a meeting with South Korean residents in Saudi Arabia.

With the production schedule of the F-35 jet repeatedly postponed due to technical problems, the Pentagon will upgrade 350 aging F-16 fighters to fill the gap in the fleet, Air Force leaders told reporters.

"The issue with respect to F-35 is that obviously the planes are not delivering as quickly as originally anticipated," said General Norton Schwartz, the Air Force chief of staff.

As a result, the Air Force needed "to posture the legacy force to make sure that we retain the capabilities we need until the F-35 delivers in numbers," he said.

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, manufactured by Lockheed Martin, is touted as the backbone of America's future air fleet but an ambitious production timeline has unraveled due to technical headaches that emerged in initial flight tests.

Officials discussed extending the service life of the F-16s as they unveiled details of the Air Force's proposed budget for fiscal year 2013.

Despite production delays for the F-35, Air Force Secretary Michael Donley insisted the government remained fully committed to the program and to purchasing a total of 2,443 of the aircraft as planned.

"This is a must-do for our armed forces. It's the future of the fighter force, not only for the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps, but also about 12 other international partners as well," he said.

At an estimated $385 billion, the F-35 is the Pentagon's most expensive weapons program. The military had hoped to have 423 of the F-35 fighters built between 2013 and 2017 but has had to slash the number down to 244.

The Zafar missile, as it is dubbed in the report, "is a short-range, anti-ship cruise missile capable of destroying small- and medium-sized targets with high precision."

It can be mounted on speed boats and other light vessels, can withstand electronic warfare, and is able to fly in low altitudes to avoid detection, the report said.

Iran has a fleet of speed boats that often challenge US and allied warships in the Gulf.

The vessels are usually controlled by the elite Revolutionary Guards and can be equipped with missiles.

The Islamic republic says it has a wide range of missiles. It says some are capable of striking targets inside Israel as well as Middle Eastern military bases of its other main archfoe, the United States.

Tehran regularly boasts about developing missiles having substantial range and capabilities, but Western military experts cast doubt on its claims.

Iran's military said in January that it could close the strategic Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf, through which a third of global marine oil traffic passes, if it is attacked.

They are based on MQM-107D Streaker target drones, which are used by the US army, and imported from a Middle East nation believed to be Syria, Yonhap news agency reported.

It cited an anonymous Seoul military official, adding the communist state would likely deploy them, once completed, near the tense maritime border with the South on the Yellow Sea.

The US drone, which flies at 40,000 feet (12,000 metres) at a maximum speed of 575 miles (920 kilometres) per hour, is commonly used for testing missiles.

The North has conducted several tests by mounting high explosives on the imported drones but has not been able to produce a new weapon yet, said the source quoted by Yonhap.

The disputed sea border off the west coast was the scene of deadly naval clashes in 1999, 2002 and 2009. The North also shelled a frontier island in a November 2010 attack that left four South Koreans dead.

A parade of world defence leaders and experts meeting at the Munich Security Conference issued stark warnings about Europe's place in the global arena if it fails to maintain its military might.

With the debt crisis forcing governments to cut spending, Europeans were told they have little choice but to look to each other to ensure they have the aircraft, ships and weapons they need to stay relevant.

"I m not concerned. I'm not pessimistic, on the contrary I see opportunities in this financial crisis to strengthen mechanisms that band allies together," said NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

Europeans are slowly moving towards more cooperation.

Rasmussen launched the "Smart Defence" initiative a year ago in Munich, aiming to find ways for the 28-nation alliance to deepen cooperation to maintain military capabilities.

The European Union is promoting a similar "pooling and sharing" initiative to find ways to share resources or buy expensive equipment together.

"Nations realise that going alone, especially for large projects, is not possible," said French General Stephane Abrial, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander for Transformation tasked with finding new ways to cooperate.

But Abrial admitted in a panel discussion on Smart Defence that the alliance will only present "modest" programmes at a NATO summit in Chicago in May.

"I'm a little bit sceptical," said Thomas Enders, chief executive of European aerospace giant Airbus. "20 years ago these ideas were on the table. So why would this time be different."

With the United States cutting its own massive defence budget, withdrawing troops from Europe and turning its strategic gaze towards Asia, Europe can no longer rely on its big-spending ally to fill the gap.

Only a handful of NATO nations respect the alliance goal of spending at least 2.0 percent of GDP on defence, while the US military budget represents 75 percent of the alliance's spending.

"This concept of Smart Defence is welcome news for most American politicians," said Republican US Senator Lindsey Graham.

"It shows that the NATO nations are really seriously thinking about maintaining a robust defence. But if it translates to a nice sounding phrase to justify less spending, I think that's not very smart."

US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta, who came to Munich with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to reassure Europeans that Washington was committed to Europe, urged allies to "cast a similar vote of confidence" by continuing to invest in defence.

British Defence Secretary Philip Hammond noted that the two US secretaries sent "a clear message to us in Europe that we are going to have to do more."

But a deep attachment to national sovereignty and wrangling over financing programmes have slowed progress.

NATO allies agreed on Friday to acquire five drones as part of a surveillance programme, but it took two decades after they sorted out disagreements about how to fund the project.

"We have to step cautiously because there are anxieties and concerns about sovereignty, about freedom of operation, which need to be addressed, and they can only be addressed through building trust," Hammond said.

He called for small, "less controversial" steps like joint training before moving on to pooling and sharing resources.

Britain, which is deeply attached to its traditional alliance with the United States within NATO, has also resisted efforts championed by France, Germany and Poland to deepen military integration through the European Union.

"The EU in the past was so willing to declare its ambitions in security policy," said Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski. "I believe that today the EU must move on from declarations, from words to deeds."

The jets targeted hideouts in the tribal Orakzai district and at least four compounds were hit, they said, in the latest surge of fighting between government security forces and Islamist militants in the Afghan border areas.

"At least 20 Taliban militants were killed in the bombing," a military official in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar said.

Local intelligence officials confirmed the air strikes.

The hideouts belonged to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) commanders Mulla Tufan and Commander Moheyuddin, a security official said. There are reports that Moheyuddin may have been killed in the bombing, he said.

A military official in Peshawar said "four hideouts have been destroyed and the death toll may go up".

Pakistan's alliance with the United States and NATO plummeted to an all-time low after US air strikes killed 24 Pakistani soldiers on November 26 and Islamabad has since shut its Afghan border to NATO supply convoys.

Relations with Afghanistan are also notoriously frosty over mutual blame for insurgencies plaguing both countries, but top-level talks in Kabul on Wednesday had been aimed at charting new cooperation.
But the leaked NATO document claims that Islamabad, via Pakistan's ISI intelligence agency, is "intimately involved" with the insurgency and that the Taliban assume victory is inevitable once Western troops leave in 2014.

The BBC said the report was based on material from 27,000 interrogations of more than 4,000 captured Taliban and Al-Qaeda operatives.

"Pakistan's manipulation of the Taliban senior leadership continues unabatedly," the report was quoted as saying.

Taliban captives said Islamabad was using a web of intermediaries and spies to provide strategic advice to the Taliban on fighting US and NATO troops.

"This is frivolous, to put it mildly. We are committed to non-interference in Afghanistan and expect all other states to strictly adhere to this principle," Pakistani foreign ministry spokesman Abdul Basit told AFP.

A senior security official condemned the leak, as reported by the BBC, which also broadcast a documentary "Secret Pakistan" last year accusing parts of Pakistan's intelligence service of complicity with Taliban militants.

"The report is not available, leaks not worth commenting," he told AFP.

A meeting Wednesday between Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar was likely to be overshadowed by the NATO report, despite being billed as an effort to get relations back on track.

"We are also committed to an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned reconciliation process," Pakistan's foreign ministry spokesman said.

Wednesday's talks follow reports that Islamabad and Kabul are keen to open peace talks with the Taliban in Saudi Arabia, separate to US talks in Qatar.

Both countries are wary of being sidelined from American peace efforts, focused first on securing an exchange of prisoners with the Taliban.

Over the last week, Pakistan has stepped up fighting in its tribal badlands on the Afghan border, where Pakistani and Afghan Taliban, Al-Qaeda operatives and other Islamist militants have carved out strongholds.

Fourteen soldiers have been killed in a bid to restrict the Taliban in Orakzai and Kurram districts, en route to North Waziristan, Pakistan's premier militant bastion where Islamabad has resisted US pressure to wage an offensive.

Security officials told AFP that Pakistani warplanes carried out pre-dawn air strikes killing at least 20 Taliban insurgents on Wednesday and that there were reports that a key Pakistani Taliban commander was among the dead.

Independent confirmation of death tolls is largely impossible in the tribal belt, a Taliban and Al-Qaeda stronghold barred to journalists and aid workers.

The officials said jets bombed four hideouts in Orakzai belonging to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) commanders Mulla Tufan and Moinuddin at around midnight (1900 GMT Tuesday).

"Bases of TTP commanders Mulla Tufan and Moinuddin were destroyed. Reportedly, commander Moinuddin, along with more than 20 terrorists, have been killed," one of the officials told AFP.

The bombing comes in the wake of clashes between security forces and militants in neighbouring Kurram in the Jogi mountains, where the military says 52 insurgents and 14 soldiers have been killed since January 25.